Exclusive
February 1, 2013
2013 IC Market Forecast
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Ken Cavallaro, Business Manager, Semiconductor Packaging News
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Semiconductor Packaging News attended an IC
Insights seminar
featuring the "The McClean Report" this week in Boston. The seminar
was hosted by Bill McClean of IC Insights and provided updates on the
semiconductor markets for 2013. The presentation included analysis and
forecasts for the IC industry with over 100 slides. This report gathers
data from the Industry suppliers, foundries, industry and economic date
and
includes a review of CAPEX and capacity trends.
IC
Insights forecasts 6% IC unit growth for 2013 based on
expectations of global GDP to rise to 3.2%, but there could be
adjustment up or
down based on the global economic recovery. There was significant drag
to
the 2012 economy from Europe, China and the USA which caused the 2012
global
GDP rate of 2.6% which was lower than expected last January. Bill is
looking for a rebound in GDP for Europe and China for 2013 with
increased economic
output while expecting the USA to remain in the 2.5% GDP growth
range.
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Bill McClean, President, IC Insights
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IC Insights thinks 2012 was a
trough in the IC
cycle and
predicts another up cycle beginning in 2013 and lasting through
2016.
IC
Insight projects semiconductor industry growth of 6 -12% unit growth
over the 5
year period with less volatility than previous cycles. This forecast is
based
on a worldwide GDP growth stabilizing and continued growth for mobile
technology.
IC Insights is forecasting a lower trend
line for IC unit
growth shipments over the next several years compared to the last cycle.
The
supply and demand are almost equal, while the leading edge capacity
cannot keep
up with demand. This situation will create less pricing pressure and
average
ASP's should stop dropping and become flat to plus 1.5% for the next 10
years.
There was an
interesting discussion regarding the effects "Fabless and Fab-Light"
companies are putting on the IC manufacturing process. With
Semiconductor Fabs
costing $3.-5 billion the trend of subcontracting your IC design
continues to
grow. The problem may develop that unit growth will exceed capacity in
the peak
cycles causing longer lead times, double ordering and shortages. The
growth of
fabless and fab-light may ultimately cause capacity issues at the
foundry
level, especially for leading edge designs. Bill mentioned a new phrase
which may cause concern for some industry companies,
"Fab-Tight".
IC insights is predicting CAPEX
budget increases, not for
increased wafer starts, but for leading edge capacity. Recent
investments
from Intel and others into ASML provide them access to advanced
technologies
required for leading edge production and 450 mm development. Bill
expects
CAPEX to be 15% of revenue for the next few years, which is lower than
previous
cycles. Bill commented, the "big keep getting bigger" and the
top 5 companies in IC spending now account 60% of all CAPEX spending
compared
to 40% in 2005. He expects more capacity to move to upstate NY and the
potential of Apple to team up with a supplier to subcontract
manufacturing to
the USA and move away from Samsung.
We thank IC
Insights for allowing us to participate in this
presentation. To learn more about The McClean Report, visit this link:
http://www.icinsights.com/services/mcclean-report/report-contents/
Ken Cavallaro
, Business Manager
Semiconductor Packaging News
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